It’s true that warfare has persisted throughout human history. Evidence exists that tribes even fought in paleolithic times – like chimpanzees today. But, at least since Plato’s time, we humans have also believed in idealism. Peace is better than war, and continuous warfare is never thought to be the ideal human condition! Indeed, those who spend their lives preparing for war are often considered to be shamefully cynical. Their defense is generally based on the value of deterrence – any prospective adversary will be deterred from attacking through fear of casualties.
But, as we have seen repeatedly through history, deterrence has only limited relevance to the overall architecture of armed conflict. Fear of casualties is often subservient to other political considerations – many having more to do with the security of the leader (or leadership class), or with some mysterious “influence” over economic flows. Human tribes have leaders whose personal interests may not correspond to any real benefits for the tribe.
So, we have wars. In 2024, two specific wars capture much media attention in the U.S., Ukraine and Gaza, even though neither has any direct impact on American lives. And, sadly, there are many people in other parts of the world who ARE negatively impacted by ongoing conflicts which don’t seem to garner any media attention here. These are the civil wars in Africa, such as Sudan, or ethnic cleansing in Myanmar, and struggles for power in Latin America, including gang and drug violence. All these struggles share one common feature: one party resorts to violence when no other path exists for fulfilling its aims, and the other party defends itself as best it can – usually with countervailing violence. You’d think it would be far preferable to resolve these issues via a system of laws and justice, but unfortunately such a system seems difficult to establish and maintain in much of the world.
Here’s a summary of ongoing conflicts in 2024:
- Russo-Ukraine War: beginning in 2014 with Russian insurgency in Donbas and annexation of Crimea, and escalating into full invasion in 2022, this war has accounted for perhaps 100,000 casualties over the last year.
- Arab-Israeli Conflict: ongoing since 1948, when the state of Israel was established, but escalating significantly in October, 2023 when the Palestinian extremist group Hamas launched a massive strike into Israel, with subsequent Israeli retaliation against Palestinians in Gaza. Estimated casualties during past year: 30,000 – 40,000.
- Myanmar: also ongoing since 1948, with independence of Burma. It is largely an ethnic conflict between tribal groups, notably the Rohingya (Moslem) vs. a Buddhist majority. Estimated casualties during past year: 19,000 – 20,000.
- Maghreb Insurgency: this African series of trans-border insurgencies began in 2002, and involves multiple civil wars, coups, and retaliations across West and Central Africa, especially the Sahel region. Estimated casualties in 2023-24: ~18,000.
- Sudan: this large East African country has been engaged in full-blown civil war for just about exactly one year – primarily the result of a power struggle between rival military and para-military organizations. Estimated casualties: ~16,000.
- Somali Civil War: ongoing since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, this war is the model for a dystopian failed state scenario. It has recently spilled across borders to breakaway Somaliland and Kenya. Estimated casualties over last year: ~11,000.
- Mexican drug war: two rival cartels, the Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas, have been engaged in what appears to be one of the world’s bloodiest civil wars, since 2006. Estimated casualties, 2023-24: ~9000.
- Syrian Civil War: although somewhat calmer over this past year, compared to previous years going back to its 2011 origins, there are still U.S. military boots on the ground, and plenty of Iranian and Turkish proxies involved. The Islamic State (ISIS) still exists there in theory. Estimated casualties over past year: ~8000.
And that’s not all of them! Many lesser conflicts still claim innocent lives. There are no wars, civil or international, that don’t have casualties. They are generally not fought for territory (except perhaps in the case of Ukraine), but rather for cultural inclusion or economic hegemony – especially in cases of weak or failed states. The inability of a state to represent all its constituent groups often leads to individual players assuming titular leadership of a faction that feels it has nothing to gain by refraining from conflict. In fact, violence may be the only perceived path to gaining a “fair share” of a nation’s resources. The assaulted group then feels it needs to retaliate for “retribution.” The cycle of violence escalates.
The only historical category of warfare that seems to have abated in recent years is geopolitical conflict between great powers. Today’s wars are mostly civil or ethnic. If great (or even would-be regional) powers are involved, it is usually through incitement, incentives, and then proxy fighters. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China, Russia … and the United States, have been guilty of such adventurism in recent years as much as in historic eras. Among the conflicts itemized above, such interference can be seen in Ukraine, Arab-Israeli wars, Myanmar, the Maghreb, Somalia, and Syria. Only Sudan and the Mexican drug wars show little or no involvement by foreign powers – and the Mexican cartels might be said to finance their weapons procurement via the United States. But all these great and regional power influences are indirect, covert, and never at odds with recognized international law. Only state warmakers can run afoul of the ICC – that powerless legal tribune in the Hague which is currently entertaining charges against Israel and Russia.
War itself is not illegal, and all nations are presumed to possess a right to self-defense. Anyway, war contained within a nation’s borders – except for the International Genocide Convention (which tiptoes around the issue of “ethnic cleansing”) – requires another country to file charges.
Additional complications to today’s warfare come from the technology of modern weapons. Armies need not be composed of massive formations of soldiers. Conscription is still used by many countries, but the robot wars of today’s drone swarms and cyber-attack tend to diminish the role of infantrymen employed en masse. Countermeasures have also improved exponentially, as we have seen this month over Israel – Iran’s mass bombardment was no match for the Iron Dome defense. Land mines in Ukraine have resulted in stalemate for mobile forces. The ongoing proliferation of nuclear deterrents (North Korea and Iran?) does not seem to have had any impact on the incidence of fraternal strife in the many third world countries engaged in bloody wars – perhaps even contributing to their eruption and adding to their longevity. The growing air and naval power of India and China, while not being engaged in conflict themselves, have also not tamped down the fratricidal wars in their respective, and overlapping, zones of interest.
We live in a period of geopolitical uncertainty, where all great powers and a growing cadre of medium size developing regional powers, seem to be unable or unwilling to use their influence to bring about peace in many different theaters of conflict. What do they gain from these wars? Or is it only that they lose nothing from their continuation? As always, it seems only the weak suffer – but, at least, it appears that the way out is the way up. Sustained development and economic growth may still be the best path forward beyond all these depressing conflicts. How best to achieve that growth ought to be the guiding motivation for all nations – their people and their leaders.
— William Sundwick
Warp and Woof 