It’s true, as most mainstream pundits are warning you, 2023’s elections were not the real thing, not like next year’s RBD (Really Big Deal). But it is accurate to state an unmistakable trend in every U.S. election since 2018. Dems win, GOP loses. Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governorship in 2021 and bringing coattails along (House of Delegates and other statewide offices) was – it appears now – an anomaly. The Virginia Democratic Party was, frankly, caught flat-footed that year, but that’s for another post.
I’m not adding anything to the conversation if I only focus on the one obvious issue in multiple states: reproductive rights. It seems reasonable to assume that, eventually, after enough losses in popular votes, Republicans will wise up about this one. What happens if they wise up by November 2024? Dems clearly need something else!
There are other issues. When polls continue to show Americans think the “economy is bad,” it means something. Evidently, low unemployment statistics, growing GDP and productivity, and decreasing rates of inflation are not what voters have in mind. They may be thinking about the newly prohibitive interest rates for mortgages or car loans. And, likely, their wages have not grown fast enough to tackle that inflation which may be calming down but is still a lot higher than it was before the pandemic. But they do support unions much more robustly than they did before – perhaps perceiving a connection! And organized labor has always been a handmaiden of the Democratic Party. Still, union membership is distressingly low – only about 10% of work force compared to 20% penetration 40 years ago, and even higher in the 1960s. Republicans have a harder time dealing with material concerns of working-class Americans than they do appealing to their conservative cultural values. But “culture wars” can only go so far; it wouldn’t be hard for Dems to campaign on those cultural issues being nothing more than a Republican smokescreen, it seems to me.
In New Jersey legislative elections this year, an issue that came up just before election day in November was the announcement that the Danish firm Ørsted was backing out of its deal to build a massive offshore wind farm – mostly due to financing problems (those damn interest rates?) – this may well have influenced New Jersey voters choosing to expand the Democratic majority even further in both houses. Green infrastructure projects ARE popular, just as abortion rights are popular, and higher wages are popular. The median voter, whether in New Jersey, Virginia, or Texas, does not think that clean energy projects are a waste of time and money. They are supported if they mean jobs.
Yet not everything is coming up roses for Democrats. This year’s elections also had some sobering counter-narratives. Despite Andy Beshear’s popularity (a higher victory margin than in 2019) for the Kentucky governorship, all other statewide offices in his administration are held by Republicans. It appears that in Kentucky, Beshear is the anomaly – much as Youngkin is in Virginia. Kentucky is still a reliably red state – Trump carried it by 26 points in 2020 — and the legislature can override the governor’s vetoes. Beshear’s popularity may be more personal (or family-related from his father, also a popular governor) than policy driven. Then, there is the sad case of Brandon Presley’s challenge to popular, but corruption-plagued, Republican governor Tate Reeves in Mississippi. Presley apparently failed to energize Mississippi voters with his family connection to Elvis (a 2d cousin), and chose to call himself a “pro-life Democrat,” with no daylight between him and socially conservative Reeves on abortion rights. He did try to drive home an economic message in poverty-stricken Mississippi – but could he have goosed turnout a bit in urban/suburban Jackson if he had been a bit more proactive on the reproductive rights issue?
Moving ahead to next year, U.S. Senate control by Dems is clearly tenuous. They can’t lose more than one seat – and that’s only if Kamala remains the tie-breaking vote. Already, last week, Joe Manchin announced that he will not run for re-election in 2024. That’s the one seat! Nobody thinks that he will be replaced by anybody other than popular Republican governor Jim Justice. Still, we hear confident swagger from Democratic boosters that either Colin Allred in Texas (running against Ted Cruz) or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida (against Rick Scott) are possible flips for Dems, but … well, fingers crossed. Even if one of them is successful, there are still at least four vulnerable Senate Democrats up for re-election next year. What are the chances that three of them survive? If neither Allred nor Mucarsel-Powell are successful in their challenges, that means no more Dems can be defeated for re-election if Chuck Schumer is to remain Majority Leader, after that Manchin decision. Republican control of the Senate, even with a Biden re-election, would probably mean death to the Inflation Reduction Act, and ultimately the planet, defeat for Ukraine, and no end to the violent relationship of Israel and Palestinians — not to mention the impossibility of getting any Biden appointments through the body! The Senate is the body that traditionally is most influential in treaties and foreign relations, and approves executive appointments.
On the other hand, flipping the House is a distinct possibility for Dems – the precarious position of Republicans seeing nothing good happen to them there since 2022 is taking its toll. A divided Congress may be in our immediate future just as it was for this session, but with parties flipped between the two houses.
Then, there is the executive. Joe Biden is old. Many people (of all stripes) think he is too old to continue to govern effectively. What Democratic messaging ought to be concentrating on are: 1) Kamala Harris really IS a potentially capable leader; and 2) Donald Trump is almost as old as Biden, and demonstrably more senile (or whatever is the most likely explanation for his behavior). Some in the Washington media ecosystem, those with a more conservative persuasion, think that Joe Biden may have accommodated the left wing of the Democratic Party too much (being cozy with both Bernie and Liz Warren over the last three years – even AOC often says good things about him). But, let’s face it, Joe was a long-time Senator, a compromiser in his soul. His political instincts are in his DNA. They are what make a successful leader in a democracy. He seems to know where Americans sit on most issues. At least, he acts like he cares. I think it is more than an act. And I will do my best over the next year to support and write about American politicians who I think are the real “winners,” or potential winners! The same goes for the issues themselves – look for more on them in Warp & Woof over the coming months.
— William Sundwick
Warp and Woof 